Archive

Archive for April, 2009

Housing Delusion: It’s Not 2004 Anymore

April 9th, 2009

A recent article in the soon to be defunct Boston Globe caught my eye today.  “Low mortgage rates, falling prices, and a tax credit are luring first-time buyers into homes they can afford” reads the headline.  I made it through the first page without laughing as it was pretty reasonable.

“I wanted to snap something up,” said Rehman, a psychiatry resident at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston. “It might get lower, but I still feel good about my decision.”

This guy seems to have reasonable expectations.  He admits prices could go lower but he wants to buy now due to a pending marriage.  Completely reasonable.

Then I clicked over to page 2 and read about this guy:

“The $8,000 credit is definitely huge,” said Jamerson, who sells plumbing supplies. “We are looking to buy cheap and in four to five years make a nice profit.

Seriously dude, 2004 called, they want their irrational exuberance back.  Even those optimistic on real estate prices are predicting an L shaped recovery or the proverbial “dead cat bounce.”  When prices finally do stop falling, they are likely to flatline for 5 or more years.  If this guy is expecting any “profit” let alone “nice profit” in 5 years he is going to be severely disappointed.  For what it’s worth I think it’s extremely telling that the particular development in which he is buying, 5 of the 6 buyers are “first time.”  This means the builder has convinced 5 households with no experience in actual homeownership to buy into his development.  Why was he not able to convince more previous homeowners on the value of this particular piece of real estate?  I’m guessing a combination of taxes and  association fees make this a less than stellar proposition but without the benefits of experience these people don’t know any better.

Surprisingly this kind of article is common.  Stories about people convinced it’s a good time to buy and doing so.  Quotes from realtor’s stating how the combination of low prices, low rates, and incentives make it a great time to buy.  But what’s missing?  Articles about experienced landlords and investors buying.  Where are those stories?  Stories about people with a track record of making wise real estate decisions?  I won’t be convinced we have hit bottom until we start seeing stories about those people.  If it’s a such a great time to buy, where are the investor’s?

Jon Economy

The Danger of Shopping With My Wife

April 8th, 2009

This week one of the local grocery stores is having another Catalina deal, buy $20 of Proctor & Gamble products get a $10 off your next order coupon.  Pretty good deal especially since you only need to spend $20 at “regular” prices and many of the items are on sale.  Normally I can just do the shopping myself but since I have no idea what kind of Olay and Covergirl products my wife is going to want, I took her with me.

First we end up parking and using the door furthest from the health and beauty section, this leads to us coming in and walking past the overpriced flowers section.  “I want a tulip” she says.  “That’s not what we came here for” I respond.  Needless to say a tulip ends up being the first thing in the basket.  I try to walk quickly to the health and beauty section but notice that she’s stopped and looking at some chocolate bunny’s on the display.  Fortunately we have plenty of chocolate at home, so none of them end up in the basket.  We finally make it to the Olay section and she looks straight to one of the most expensive items on the shelf:  a $25.99 moisturizer.  “Is this what you normally get?” I ask.  “No last time I got that $11.99 green bottle over there” she responds.  After the 20% off sale price and the $10 Catalina, it ends up being $10.79.  It’s less than the green bottle so I agree.

We then check out the Covergirl section to see what she likes there.  Here the sale is 30% off plus the Catalina so some great deals are possible.  I tell her to pick out a combination of things she likes that add up to $20.  Eventually she settles on some things she likes.  Then it’s off to the checkout, again I try to walk quickly.  Again I look back and find her looking at some fancy decorated cupcakes strategically placed on a low table (right at eye level for the kids).  These $1.99 each cupcakes intended to catch the eyes of 4 year olds had ensnared my 31 year old wife.  I think the look on my face was enough to get her to move on.

So we end up spending $36 on the cosmetics, some cat food, and a tulip, nearly half the monthly grocery bill and have a $10 catalina to save for next time.  Was it a good deal?  We’ll see if she actually uses all of the cosmetics…

Jon Budget, Deals

The Homeownership Sacred Cow

April 1st, 2009

For a long time, the very mention of renting as a wise financial manuever would get you snickers at best and passionate opposition at worst.  Homeownership is the American dream of course, so any mention to the contrary borders on unpatriotic.  Recently it has become clear that the homeownership issue is not as cut and dry as it once seemed.  You know mentality has changed when a newspaper actually publishes an article criticizing homeownership as I found recently in the Boston globe.  A large part of a newspaper’s revenue comes from real estate listings, so publishing such an article is akin to biting the hand that feeds you.  Nonetheless it’s good to see some validation in print of what I have believed for a while.  From the article:

Owning a home is not right for everyone, they say: In some ways it’s overrated, and it can even have harmful effects for individuals and society. It is now glaringly clear that buying a home is a financial risk, not the surefire investment it is often perceived to be. Widespread homeownership may also have a negative impact on the economy, because, among other reasons, displaced workers can’t easily relocate to new jobs. And some of the alleged rewards of homeownership, such as greater self-esteem, health, and civic engagement, have been called into question by research.

I’ve made the personal decision to rent my home until prices fall sufficiently to make purchasing a logical financial decision.  Even my own mother questions what I am doing.  “Homeownership is the American dream”, she tells me.  “That doesn’t make it right”, I respond.  I can understand where she is coming from.  In metro Pittsburgh, I estimate that it costs $1500 a month to rent $150,000 of house.  The same $1500 a month rents $300,000 of house here in metro Boston.  In the end, when I explain how messed up the math is here, she understands my logic.  Even with recent price reductions, it’s still not a good time to be buying property in metro Boston.

Some analysts propose abolishing or limiting the mortgage interest tax deduction, which provides substantial tax breaks for homeowners. Others favor greater security for renters - such as laws making eviction more difficult - or tax deductions for renters, which a few states, such as Massachusetts, already offer.

The government has worked hard to push homeownership to these currently unreasonable levels.  Between the mortgage interest deduction and the capital gains exemption, the government is giving up billions in revenue.  Most of the revenue the government is giving up is going straight to the wealthy.  Yes both the mortgage interest deduction and capital gains exemption primarily benefit the wealthy, both are regressive taxes.  The wealthy can afford more house and therefore will stand to have larger gains when they sell.  The wealthy are also much more likely to itemize deductions to actually benefit from the mortgage interest deduction, while the mortgage interest on a modest home might not even be enough for a middle income person to exceed the standard deduction.

I really like the part of this article where the author disputes the psychological and societal benefits of homeownership:

A recent study, which aimed to avoid the problems of previous research, suggests that homeownership confers no real benefits. The study examined self-respect, perceived notions of control, time spent with friends and family, volunteer activities, and enjoyment of the neighborhood, among other things. On all of these measures, after controlling for income, health status, and home value, the study found no significant advantage for homeowners. In fact, homeowners were on average 12 pounds heavier, and they spent less time with friends.

The evidence is mixed on whether homeowners are more civically engaged than renters. But to the extent that they are, their influence in some cases has undesirable societal repercussions. Since houses are the major asset for so many families, homeowners naturally want to protect their property values. This often leads to zoning laws that make it difficult to construct commercial or additional residential buildings. Such laws erect barriers to entrepreneurs and reduce overall housing affordability.

A homeowners self interest may actually cause them to support laws that go against free market economics.  Here in Massachusetts, we don’t need to look very far to find examples of this extreme anti-development.  A prime example is Carlisle, MA (within 25 miles of Boston) which has a population density of 317 per sq. mile.  Such a low density would classify Carlisle as an “exurb” but being 25 miles from the center of Boston it is geographically a suburb.

So what would happen if we leveled the playing field between renting and owning?  My guess is that home prices would drop to levels where it makes economic sense to own.   So areas like most of the midwest, where renting is more expensive would see little change, while both coasts would see sales prices drop and rents rise.  It would be more expensive to rent, for good reason.  Renting is a convenience that you are paying your landlord to provide.  If we keep the playing field level, people will gravitate to the decision that makes most sense for them.

Jon Economy